September 28, 2022

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College football picks, schedule: Predictions against the spread, odds for top 25 games today in Week 11

Major races towards championships — namely conference and the College Football Playoff — heat up on Saturday. Well, at least for a few teams within the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. Four top-10 teams and a number of other contenders enter key games that will help determine their futures as the 2021 college football season nears its conclusion. There’s no conference in which separation is potentially greater than the Big Ten, which has two of its league title contenders on possible upset alert.

No. 6 Michigan opens the day visiting a Penn State team that has not been ranked by the CFP Selection Committee despite it holding two wins over teams in the CFP Rankings and having at least some excuses — namely, injuries — for its string of midseason losses. The Nittany Lions are looking to pull off their third significant victory of the season, while the Wolverines hope to hold position ahead of No. 7 Michigan State despite the Spartans beating them head-to-head already this season. No. 4 Ohio State will also be looking to avoid an upset as No. 19 Purdue, which already has two wins over top-five opponents this season as an unranked team, visits The Shoe. The Boilermakers are nearly three-touchdown underdogs, which will make the game interesting for more than Buckeyes fans.

Also in the spotlight Saturday are No. 8 Oklahoma, which faces its first ranked opponent of the season as it visits No. 13 Baylor, and No. 1 Georgia, which may face its toughest offensive test to date on the road at Tennessee. Not to be left out is a significant top-25 matchup to close the day as No. 15 Ole Miss hosts a No. 11 Texas A&M team looking to find an inside track to the SEC Championship Game.

While winning is all that matters for the standings, we care about whether these teams will cover their spreads. Be sure to stick with CBS Sports throughout the day for college football coverage from the opening kickoff onward. Let’s take a look at our expert picks for the 11th full Saturday of the season.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All times Eastern

No. 6 Michigan at Penn State

Noon | ABC, fuboTV (Try for free) — I do not trust Penn State offensively in this matchup. It hasn’t shown an ability to run the ball nearly all season, and I don’t see the Nittany Lions suddenly discovering a run game against Michigan. The good news for Penn State is that, defensively, it can keep this game close, which means maybe a bounce here or there tips the scales its direction. Still, that’s not something I’m willing to bet. Michigan’s been the better team all season long. Prediction: Michigan (-1) — Tom Fornelli

No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 13 Baylor

Noon | Fox, fuboTV (Try for free) — This is Oklahoma’s first test against a nationally-ranked opponent, making it one of college football’s great unknowns. Baylor is also the first defense that should be able to challenge quarterback Caleb Williams. Behind the unpredictable wide-zone offense — and Dave Aranda’s previous success against Lincoln Riley — expect this game to finish close. Prediction: Baylor (+5.5) — Shehan Jeyarajah

No. 1 Georgia at Tennessee

3:30 p.m. | CBS, CBSSports.comCBS Sports App — Tennessee will have enough success in the big-play department to put up more points on Georgia than any other team in the country. Granted, all it will take is 14 points to accomplish that feat, but QB hendon Hooker will bust a few big ones and at least keep Georgia’s defense honest in the second half. Kirby Smart will gear things down late in the game simply to get out of Knoxville, Tennessee, with a win as quickly as possible. Prediction: Tennessee (+20.5) — Barrett Sallee

No. 19 Purdue at No. 4 Ohio State

3:30 p.m. | ABC, fuboTV (Try for free) — It’s hard for me to trust the Buckeyes to cover spreads this large. If we look at Ohio State’s eight wins this season, it’s managed to blow out teams like Akron, Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana. Those teams don’t have the defense that Purdue does. Formidable defenses have slowed the Buckeyes down, and Purdue has been an excellent defensive team all season long. I believe the Buckeyes win this game and avoid the upset, but it’s not going to be an easy victory by any stretch going up against the Boilermakers. Prediction: Purdue (+20) — Tom Fornelli

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 15 Ole Miss

7 p.m. | ESPN, , fuboTV (Try for free) — Ole Miss is banged up at receiver and across the offensive line. The Rebels masked those issues in the first half against Liberty last week but limped to the finish line in that game. At every position aside from running back, it feels like the Rebels offense is being held together with duct tape and creativity. Texas A&M appears to be getting stronger as the season goes, and the Aggies will be the more physical team in this game after imposing their will against an Auburn team that beat Ole Miss by 11. Prediction: Texas A&M (-2.5) — David Cobb

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11, and which top-15 team will get stunned? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,500 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.


https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-picks-schedule-predictions-against-the-spread-odds-for-top-25-games-today-in-week-11/